Those of you who have known and/or read me for the past 3-4 years know that I'm a veteran when it comes to writing about the presidential primary process. Crazy as it sounds, I actually got paid to do it last time (albeit not much). I correctly predicted Howard Dean's rise (though not his fall) and I correctly predicted Wesley Clark's entry into the race (though not his ineffectiveness).
I've been able to read the tea leaves pretty well. I don't necessarily do a better job than any other observer, but I think it's safe to say I do at least as well.
So now that I've digested the Iowa and New Hampshire results, here are two things to take to the bank. They might be the last things I have to say about politics for a long time.
1. Clinton will get the nomination.
2. She will lose to whoever the Republicans send up in the general election.
Politics lag behind business. What people want out of products and services doesn't match up to what they want out of candidates. I'm not sure why that is, but it definitely is.
In business, the the thing is to be exceptional. Be fresh, be new, be better.
In politics the exact opposite is true.
I don't believe this downward march is endless. But I don't think, unfortunately, that we can yet see the finish line.
Also: I desperately want to be wrong, and will sing it from the hilltops if I am.